Market Outlook 04/12/2021
Welcome to monthly opex week. Market continued their bull run last week and have reached an interesting point where decisions for medium timeframe need to be made. /ES is up over 250 points from the lows in 3840s made three weeks ago but the zone of 4104-4130 is filled with potential profit taking zones. Break and hold above 4130s clears the path for 4200 on /ES on medium timeframe.
/NQ almost reached back to its all-time highs after a staggering 1100+ point run from the lows made 3 weeks ago. Just the measured move zone for /ES, the resistance zone for /NQ is 13850-13960 and breaking above the zone creates massive targets for the summer.
The short term bullish catalyst for the markets are economy re-opening and upcoming earnings over the next few weeks.
Focussing on shorter timeframes, /ES has entered the major resistance zone for the year as it approaches channel top on daily charts.
Zooming in, /ES bulls are expected to buy the first dip which is expected early in the week. Options market activity also suggesting a shake-up before the expiry this Friday. /ES 4090-4104 is the broad area to buy the dips but keep smaller stops below that as the massive run-up implies that massive support zones are yet to be built on pullback for price acceptance at these levels.
/NQ nearing all-time highs is setting up for a pullback as well early in the week as bears should defend the 13850-13960 zone. A deep pullback in /NQ creates a double-top formation creating some risks for the bulls here.
Zooming in, /NQ has failed to show price acceptance on breaking out from the channel adding more support for the pullback expectation for /NQ before it crosses 13960s.
While /NQ and /ES have had good last few days, /RTY has quietly failed to participate in the move higher. However, /RTY hasn’t given up any major supports either as it chops around 50 Day MA. A break below 2220s on /RTY opens up some short-side opportunities to 2207, 2190, and 2175.
Events
1300 EST 10-yr Note Auction (Watch /NQ reaction on this)
/ES Market Levels 04/12
4198-4222 (Major Resistance Zone)
4172-4178 (Minor Resistance Zone)
4148-4156 (Minor Resistance Zone)
4122-4134 (Major Resistance Zone, Friday highs, Breakout Target, Key Levels: 4122, 4128)
4100-4106 (Minor Support Zone, Key Level: 4101)
4085-4093 (Intraday Line in sand - Bullish above and Bearish below, Likely Reversal Zone)
4069-4073 (Minor Support Zone, Breakdown Target, Pullback Buy Zone)
4047-4053 (Major Support Zone)
4018-4026 (Major Support Zone, Breakdown Target, Pullback Buy Zone)
4000-4004 (Major Support Zone, Key Level: 4002)
3987-3990 (Minor support zone)
3972-3979 (Major Support Zone)
3956-3964 (Major Support Zone)
3931-3934 (Major support zone)
3917-3920 (Minor support zone)
3904-3909 (Major Support Zone)
3887-3893 (Major support zone)
3840-3851 (Major support zone, Key Levels: 3842, 3849)
3806-3818 (Major support zone, Key Level: 3811)
3778-3792 (Minor support zone)
3736-3748 (Major support zone)
3688-3696 (Major support zone)
3654-3672 (Major support zone)
/NQ Market Levels 04/12
14096 - 14104 (Major Resistance Zone)
14010-14021 (Minor Resistance Zone)
13953-13966 (Major Resistance Zone, Breakout Target, Likely reversal zone)
13899-13918 (Major Resistance Zone, All-time highs)
13836-13854 (Minor Resistance Zone, Friday highs)
13760-13792 (Intraday Line in sand - Bullish above)
13705-13723 (Intraday Line in sand - Bearish below)
13595-13623 (Minor support zone, First Breakdown Target, Pullback Buy Zone)
13521-13538 (Major Support Zone, Second Breakdown Target, Likely Reversal Zone)
13473-13488 (Minor Support Zone)
13412-13431 (Minor Support Zone)
13352-13381 (Major Support Zone, Pullback Buy Zone, Breakdown Target)
13287-13300 (Major Support Zone)
13216-13242 (Minor Support Zone)
13158-13184 (Major Support Zone, 50 Day MA, Breakout ReTest, Likely reversal zone)
13110-1327 (Major Support Zone)
13040-13063 (Major Support Zone, Breakdown Target)
12974-13001 (Minor Support Zone)
12910-12929 (Minor Support Zone, Short Term Channel Bottom)
12864-12882 (Major support zone)
12801-12822 (Major Support zone)
12744-12766 (Minor Support zone)
12674-12690 (Major Support zone, Pullback Buy Zone, Measured move Target)
12601-12624 (Major Support zone, Possible reversal zone, Thursday Lows)
12548-12571 (Major Support zone)
12408-12449 (Major Support zone, Possible reversal zone)
12304-12329 (Minor Support zone)
12191-12217 (Major Support Zone, Last pivot lows)
12141-12161 (Minor Support Zone)
Futures Trade Ideas 04/12
Long /ES on retrace into 4069-73 for target 4087+. Stop below 4065.
Short /NQ on break below 13695 for target 13620 and 13526
Long /NQ on break above 13854 for target 13895+
Short /ES on a move into 4128-34 for target 4104 and below. Stop above 4138s
Buy SPX 4140 puts for SPX 4110 target
Options Trade Ideas 04/12
Buy SPX 4100-4050 put spread for 1-2 week expiry in SPX 4130s
Buy SPX 4080 calls on a retrace into 4077-4081 for 4195+ target
Buy SPX 4135 puts at SPX 4134+ for target SPX 4110.