Market Outlook 03/19/2025
After a break of over 2 years, trying to find some time to get back into putting my thoughts on paper
Markets seem rejoiced by Powell’s actions and words today as markets start to make their way towards 200 Day MA. The futures charts however don’t portray the real picture due to rollover to Jun contracts with /ES and /RTY still with a bearish undertone (shown by red background)
SPX bounced from just above the trend line support zone after breaking 200 Day MA. The wide SPX zone 5640-5740 (expanded to include 200 Day MA) is expected to see a lot of intraday action over the next couple of weeks as market seasonality enters a bullish phase.
Fundamentally Powell’s words may have changed the narrative and likely added confidence to rate cuts this year however trading on 1-3 day timeframes needs to be more attuned to positioning and technicals that macro announcements.
The most vicious rallies occur from oversold positions and SPX was pretty oversold at 5500 and the mov higher in that context doesn't confirm or deny if 5500 was a short term low or not. It is better to not think in that manner as well if trading on short timeframes.
Looking at hourly timeframes, SPX is sandwiched in the trend line based zone of uncertainty which creates a lot of options for the rest of the week
If SPX breaks above (gets at least a hourly close) above today’s high of 5715s, there lies two key levels got bulls to target
200 Day MA at 5745+
Last Monday’s Gap at 5770s
Given that we’re heading into quarterly opex, those zone sound really appealing, IF WE BREAK OUT. Remember that SPX hasn’t broken out yet and we need bullish confirmation before positioning for those levels to be hit this week. The story gets weaker for bears heading into next week if SPX does break out and close above these key zones on Friday.
Key /ES Levels For 03/19 (Jun contract) for day trading
5848-57
5821-25
5794-98 (corresponding to SPX 200 DMA)
5770-75 (Wednesday’s high)
5754-60 [Line in the sand - bullish above]
5721-26 [Line in the sand - bearish below]
5694-98
5682-85
5648-52
5615-22
Note that last 3 Fridays have been extremely bullish despite the heavy selling rest of the week.
Daily Bias for Key Tech stocks
AAPL [Red]
GOOGL [Red]
MSFT [Red]
META [Red] but heading into 200 Day MA and my favorite big tech for dip buying for long term (based on technicals)
